Full record
MisseconomyUS shelter prices (CPI shelter component) decline after summer 2023.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“the prices of shelter will have to come down”
US shelter prices (CPI shelter component) decline after summer 2023.
- Made on
- 2023-07-13
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.33
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-01-11
The US CPI shelter component declines (MoM prints turn negative or the index falls) after summer 2023, by 2023-12-31.
The written criterion is explicit: 'MoM prints turn negative or the index falls.' Neither occurred by 2023-12-31 — shelter MoM stayed clearly positive every month and the index rose. Only the YoY GROWTH RATE decelerated (disinflation), which is not a price decline. Under the criterion as written the prediction is not borne out. resolved_on = 2024-01-11, the release date of the December 2023 CPI, the last data point needed to evaluate 'by 2023-12-31.'
Sources
The Stock Market Is About To Go CRAZY
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
CPI shelter index rose every month through H2 2023: Aug +0.3% MoM, Sep +0.6% MoM — still increasing, not declining.
Shelter was the single largest contributor to headline CPI increases through late 2023; MoM prints stayed positive (Oct/Nov/Dec 2023 all +0.3% to +0.5%), so the shelter index level kept rising through 2023-12-31.
Boston Fed analysis frames 2023 shelter disinflation as a slow YoY deceleration from ~8% highs, not an outright decline in the index level.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.33- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
US shelter prices (CPI shelter component) decline after sum…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-07-13
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources