Full record
HiteconomyThe US does not enter a recession imminently — no recession begins within the next ~3 months
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“the recession that we're talking about isn't imminent”
The US does not enter a recession imminently — no recession begins within the next ~3 months
- Made on
- 2022-04-03
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Effect on score
- +4.77
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-07-03
No US recession (NBER-dated) begins within ~3 months of 2022-04-03 (by ~2022-07-03).
Criterion is NBER-dated recession start within ~3 months of 2022-04-03. NBER has dated no recession beginning in 2022 at all, so the window is cleanly evaluable and closed. No outcome value assigned here.
Sources
5 Reasons You Shouldn't Panic About The "Yield Curve Inversion"
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee's official chronology shows no recession peak dated after the February 2020 peak (trough April 2020). No US recession was dated as beginning in the April–July 2022 window, so no NBER-dated recession began within ~3 months of 2022-04-03.
NBER business-cycle dating page and committee announcements confirm the committee has issued no new peak (recession-start) announcement since the June 2020 peak-dating; none for 2022.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+4.77- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 5 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The US does not enter a recession imminently — no recession…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-04-03
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources