Full record

75% rightmarkets

Amazon (AMZN) shares reach $4,000 to $4,500 per share (pre-2022-split basis).

A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .

VideoQuote from the original sourcemarketstech

Scored prediction

75% rightmarkets

I think Amazon is going to go to four, four and a half thousand dollars per share.

Amazon (AMZN) shares reach $4,000 to $4,500 per share (pre-2022-split basis).

Made on
2021-03-22
Outcome
75% right
Importance
3 / 5
Effect on score
+2.94

What counted as right

Status
resolved
Settled on
2024-03-22

AMZN trades at or above $4,000 per share on a pre-2022-split basis (equivalently $200 after the 20:1 split of 2022-06-06) at any point on or before 2024-03-22, using split-adjusted closing prices. Reaching the low end of the stated $4,000-$4,500 band counts as a hit.

Clear miss on the written criterion, and it is a miss by a wide margin plus timing: the peak inside the window ($3,773 pre-split equivalent) fell about 6% short of the $4,000 low end of the stated band, and AMZN did not print $200 post-split until July 2024, roughly four months after the deadline. Because a monthly high is the maximum of that month's daily highs, no daily close inside the window can exceed $188.654, so the finer-grained daily series cannot change this result. Figures were independently cross-checked against Nasdaq consolidated monthly OHLC pulled from the Interactive Brokers market-data feed, which matched to the cent (2024-03 high 181.70, 2024-07 high 201.20). No conflicting evidence found. resolved_on is set to the deadline, the date the criterion window closed unsatisfied.

Sources

  • What's Next For Tech and Growth Stocks [My Strategy For 2021]

    YouTube - Tom Nash (@TomNashTV) ·

    Source

Evidence of what happened

  • Monthly split-adjusted OHLC for AMZN over the claim window 2021-03 through 2024-03: the highest price of any kind reached in the window was $188.654 intraday (July 2021), equivalent to $3,773.08 on the pre-2022-split basis. The highest monthly close was $180.38 (March 2024). AMZN therefore never touched the $200 post-split / $4,000 pre-split threshold on or before 2024-03-22, on closing or even intraday prices.

    Evidence

  • Exact data endpoint queried (10-year monthly series, unadjusted for dividends, adjusted for the 20:1 split of 2022-06-06). Window maxima computed from it: max high 188.654 (2021-07), max monthly close 180.38 (2024-03). First month with any print at or above $200 was July 2024 (high 201.20); first monthly close at or above $200 was November 2024 (close 207.89) - both after the deadline.

    Evidence

Corrections

No public corrections.

Effect on the score

+2.94
How sure they sounded
65%
Outcome
75% right
Importance
3 / 5

This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.

Where this came from

Amazon (AMZN) shares reach $4,000 to $4,500 per share (pre-…
Methodology version
v1.0.0
Last computed
August 2, 2026
Made on
2021-03-22

How this profile was built

  1. Scored by independent judges

  2. Predictions gathered and sourced

  3. Independently verified against sources

Every public score traces back to sourced prediction records.

Avow is an independent project. The pundits scored here are not affiliated with Avow and do not endorse it. Names and likenesses are used for identification and commentary.

Evidence firstMethodologyPrivacy