Full record
75% rightmarketsAmazon (AMZN) shares reach $4,000 to $4,500 per share (pre-2022-split basis).
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
75% rightmarkets“I think Amazon is going to go to four, four and a half thousand dollars per share.”
Amazon (AMZN) shares reach $4,000 to $4,500 per share (pre-2022-split basis).
- Made on
- 2021-03-22
- Outcome
- 75% right
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.94
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-03-22
AMZN trades at or above $4,000 per share on a pre-2022-split basis (equivalently $200 after the 20:1 split of 2022-06-06) at any point on or before 2024-03-22, using split-adjusted closing prices. Reaching the low end of the stated $4,000-$4,500 band counts as a hit.
Clear miss on the written criterion, and it is a miss by a wide margin plus timing: the peak inside the window ($3,773 pre-split equivalent) fell about 6% short of the $4,000 low end of the stated band, and AMZN did not print $200 post-split until July 2024, roughly four months after the deadline. Because a monthly high is the maximum of that month's daily highs, no daily close inside the window can exceed $188.654, so the finer-grained daily series cannot change this result. Figures were independently cross-checked against Nasdaq consolidated monthly OHLC pulled from the Interactive Brokers market-data feed, which matched to the cent (2024-03 high 181.70, 2024-07 high 201.20). No conflicting evidence found. resolved_on is set to the deadline, the date the criterion window closed unsatisfied.
Sources
What's Next For Tech and Growth Stocks [My Strategy For 2021]
YouTube - Tom Nash (@TomNashTV) ·
Evidence of what happened
Monthly split-adjusted OHLC for AMZN over the claim window 2021-03 through 2024-03: the highest price of any kind reached in the window was $188.654 intraday (July 2021), equivalent to $3,773.08 on the pre-2022-split basis. The highest monthly close was $180.38 (March 2024). AMZN therefore never touched the $200 post-split / $4,000 pre-split threshold on or before 2024-03-22, on closing or even intraday prices.
Exact data endpoint queried (10-year monthly series, unadjusted for dividends, adjusted for the 20:1 split of 2022-06-06). Window maxima computed from it: max high 188.654 (2021-07), max monthly close 180.38 (2024-03). First month with any print at or above $200 was July 2024 (high 201.20); first monthly close at or above $200 was November 2024 (close 207.89) - both after the deadline.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.94- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- 75% right
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Amazon (AMZN) shares reach $4,000 to $4,500 per share (pre-…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-03-22
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources