Full record
MissmarketsThe US stock market posts a strong rally over the next few months from S&P 500 ~4500.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“we're probably looking at a very hot Market going forward for the next few months”
The US stock market posts a strong rally over the next few months from S&P 500 ~4500.
- Made on
- 2023-07-13
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -0.84
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-10-13
The S&P 500 rises meaningfully (roughly >5%) above ~4500 within about 3 months of 2023-07-13.
Unambiguous and resolvable. From ~4,510 on 2023-07-13, the S&P peaked ~1.7% higher (4,588.96 on 7/31) and never came within reach of a >5% gain; by the ~3-month horizon (2023-10-13) it had declined to the low-4,200s, a net LOSS. The 'strong rally / >5%' criterion is not met. resolved_on = deadline 2023-10-13.
Sources
The Stock Market Is About To Go CRAZY
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
S&P 500 closed 4,510.04 on 2023-07-13, the claim's starting reference (~4500).
Highest close over the following ~3 months was 4,588.96 on 2023-07-31 — only ~1.7% above the 7/13 level, well short of a >5% rally (which would require ~4,735).
The index then fell, breaking its year-long uptrend and testing the ~4,200 area by early–mid October 2023 — i.e. it was BELOW the starting level near the deadline.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-0.84- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The US stock market posts a strong rally over the next few…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-07-13
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources