Full record
HitmarketsTesla's Model Y (and eligible models) will qualify for the IRA EV tax credit.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“I think they'll figure out this thing with the Eevee credit that model y5 series will qualify and that if you credit is going to be huge for them”
Tesla's Model Y (and eligible models) will qualify for the IRA EV tax credit.
- Made on
- 2023-01-03
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +1.96
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-02-03
The IRS/Treasury classifies Tesla's Model Y as eligible for the IRA EV tax credit.
Criterion (IRS/Treasury classifies Model Y as eligible for the IRA EV tax credit) met directly and quickly. Resolved on the 2023-02-03 Treasury reclassification date. Deadline 2023-12-31 passed.
Sources
Tesla Missed Delivery Target (But That's OK)
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
On 2023-02-03 Treasury revised its vehicle-classification standard so the Tesla Model Y is treated as an SUV, qualifying it for the $7,500 IRA new-clean-vehicle credit under the $80,000 SUV MSRP cap; the change was retroactive to 2023-01-01.
IRS/Treasury FAQ confirms the $80,000 MSRP cap applies to vans, SUVs and pickups (including reclassified Model Y) for the New Clean Vehicle Credit.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+1.96- How sure they sounded
- 90%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Tesla's Model Y (and eligible models) will qualify for the…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-01-03
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources