Full record
MissmarketsThe US stock market will undergo a correction (~10% pullback) within about three months
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“Now we are in the middle of a bull run, all-time highs, Euphoria, everybody's making money and that's great, however I smell a correction around the corner.”
The US stock market will undergo a correction (~10% pullback) within about three months
- Made on
- 2024-03-05
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.33
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-06-05
The S&P 500 records a ≥10% peak-to-trough decline at some point on or before 2024-06-05.
Criterion (S&P 500 records a ≥10% peak-to-trough decline on or before 2024-06-05) is determinable and resolved. The deepest drawdown in the window was ~5.5% (Mar–Apr 2024); the threshold of 10% was not reached before the deadline. resolved_on set to the deadline, the point the window closed. Outcome value not assigned (later stage).
Sources
This Won't End Well...
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The maximum S&P 500 drawdown in the first half of 2024 was the ~5.5% pullback from the March 28, 2024 peak to the April 18–19, 2024 trough — well short of 10%. No larger decline occurred on or before June 5, 2024; the index had rebounded toward new highs by early June.
The first ≥8% S&P 500 correction of 2024 did not begin until after the mid-July 2024 all-time high, confirming no ~10% decline had occurred within the record's ~three-month window ending 2024-06-05.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.33- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The US stock market will undergo a correction (~10% pullbac…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-03-05
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources