Full record
25% rightenergyIf Russia cuts Nord Stream gas flows in winter 2022, Germany will face severe energy and economic hardship
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
25% rightenergy“if in the winter russia cuts out north stream for more maintenance germany is going to be in a heap of trouble and i think that's why russia is counting on this winter to put some squeeze in germany”
If Russia cuts Nord Stream gas flows in winter 2022, Germany will face severe energy and economic hardship
- Made on
- 2022-08-31
- Outcome
- 25% right
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +1.12
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-03-31
Given a Russian Nord Stream cutoff, Germany experiences severe energy shortages/economic hardship during winter 2022-23
Conditional prediction: the antecedent (Russian Nord Stream cutoff) occurred, so the consequent is testable. The predicted 'severe energy shortages / economic hardship' did NOT materialize to a severe degree during winter 2022-23: no rationing, storage remained high, supply was secure. Prices were elevated and GDP was weak (mild contraction), so there was real economic strain, but nothing approaching the severe shortage/hardship the claim asserted — driven by demand reduction, LNG diversification, and an unusually mild winter. Resolved as of the deadline 2023-03-31 (winter's end). This is a resolution of what happened, not a score.
Sources
Buffett trims BYD position, Russia halts gas flows to Europe, Mortgage demand falls | Tom Nash
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The Russian Nord Stream cutoff condition was met: Russia halted Nord Stream 1 flows in late Aug/Sept 2022 and the pipelines were disabled by the 2022-09-26 explosions, ending German Russian pipeline imports. Despite this, Germany's federal network regulator (Bundesnetzagentur) stated on 2023-03-23 'We were able to avert a gas shortage last winter' — the winter passed with NO enforced gas rationing and storage still above 90% by early 2023.
Bundesnetzagentur / German government reports: security of supply was safeguarded throughout winter 2022-23; gas consumption fell ~14% vs the prior four-year average (industry −15%, households/businesses −12%), aided by a mild winter (temps ~1.1°C above average) and new LNG import capacity online from January 2023. Storage facilities were 'full to the brim.'
Analysts confirm Germany emerged from its first winter without Russian gas without the feared severe shortages or large-scale disruption; government 'price brakes' and VAT cuts cushioned costs. The economy took a blow (high prices, weak growth) but avoided the predicted severe energy shortages/economic catastrophe.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+1.12- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- 25% right
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
If Russia cuts Nord Stream gas flows in winter 2022, German…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-08-31
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources