Full record
HitmarketsThe stock market will sell off sharply and imminently as fiscal stimulus (the Build Back Better bill) is withdrawn.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“this bill dying essentially means that the stock market is going to have a hissy fit”
The stock market will sell off sharply and imminently as fiscal stimulus (the Build Back Better bill) is withdrawn.
- Made on
- 2021-12-20
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.86
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-01-27
The S&P 500 falls >=5% within ~3 months of the BBB collapse / fiscal-stimulus withdrawal in late December 2021.
Criterion (S&P 500 falls >=5% within ~3 months of the late-Dec-2021 BBB collapse) is met; the >5% threshold from the Dec 20, 2021 reference level was first breached on the Jan 27, 2022 close and exceeded through March. Confound noted: the same window also carried Omicron, Fed-tightening expectations, and (late Feb) the Russia-Ukraine invasion, so the magnitude is not attributable to fiscal withdrawal alone — but the written criterion is purely a price-decline threshold, which resolves cleanly. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
What's next for this crazy stock market
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
BBB collapsed when Sen. Manchin announced on Dec 19, 2021 he would vote 'no'; global equities, crypto and Treasuries sold off immediately and Goldman cut its 2022 US growth forecast. This is the 'fiscal-stimulus withdrawal in late December 2021' anchor.
S&P 500 closed 4568.02 on Dec 20, 2021 (BBB-collapse level). Within the ~3-month window it fell well past 5%: -5.3% by the Jan 27, 2022 close (4326.51) and roughly -8-9% by early-to-mid March 2022 (~4170), before the deadline of 2022-03-20.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.86- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The stock market will sell off sharply and imminently as fi…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-12-20
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources