Full record
MisstechApple TV+ breaks into the top five streaming services within two years (by 2022-12-26).
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Misstech“i think within the next two years you're gonna see a steady push as they try to get into the top five which i think they will”
Apple TV+ breaks into the top five streaming services within two years (by 2022-12-26).
- Made on
- 2020-12-26
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.31
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-12-26
Resolves TRUE if Apple TV+ ranks among the top five subscription video streaming services by subscribers or market share in a recognised third-party measurement (e.g. Nielsen, Antenna, Ampere Analysis) at any point on or before 2022-12-26; FALSE if it remains outside the top five throughout.
Direction of evidence is FALSE (Apple TV+ did not break into the top five by 2022-12-26), but note the caveats below before treating this as airtight. At/near the 2022-12-26 deadline at least five subscription video services had substantially larger subscriber bases than Apple TV+'s ~25M paid: Netflix (~231M), Prime Video (~200M+), Disney+ (161.8M), HBO Max (76.8M as of Q1 2022), and Paramount+ (55.9M). Hulu (~48M per Disney's Q1 FY23 report) would be a sixth. Fifth place was therefore ~2.2x Apple TV+, so the ranking is not close and does not turn on which of the large services is counted. METHOD CAVEAT: the criterion asks for a 'recognised third-party measurement' (Nielsen, Antenna, Ampere Analysis). I could not retrieve a contemporaneous Nielsen/Antenna/Ampere report directly - the session's WebSearch budget was exhausted, web.archive.org is blocked to this agent, stooq.com served a bot-detection challenge (not bypassed), and Nielsen's live Gauge page now shows only April 2026 data. Resolution therefore rests on company-reported (primary, SEC/earnings) subscriber counts for the competitors plus a third-party estimate for Apple TV+, which is a stronger basis than the third-party estimates the criterion names, but is not literally the named measurement. RESIDUAL AMBIGUITY worth a second look at verify stage: the criterion says 'by subscribers or market share', and Apple TV+ may have ranked top-five in narrower recognised cuts (e.g. Antenna's US share of gross subscriber ADDITIONS during a Ted Lasso spike). Gross additions are neither subscribers nor market share on the plain reading, so I resolved rather than flagged, but if a later stage wants the criterion read that loosely the record could flip and should be re-examined.
Sources
Apple (AAPL) Stock at $132 After Apple Car: Buy Now Or Wait?
YouTube - Tom Nash ·
Evidence of what happened
Wikipedia's Apple TV+ article reports an estimated 25 million paid subscribers as of March 2022 (plus ~50 million promotional/free-trial viewers). This is the only subscriber magnitude available for Apple TV+ in the prediction window, since Apple does not disclose Apple TV+ subscribers in its SEC filings.
Netflix FY2022 Form 10-K (filed 2023-01-26, period ending 2022-12-31) states approximately 231 million paid memberships in over 190 countries. Primary SEC filing.
Disney reported 161.8 million total Disney+ subscribers worldwide (incl. Disney+ Hotstar) for the quarter ending 2022-12-31, announced February 2023.
Paramount+ reported 55.9 million subscribers as of December 2022.
HBO/HBO Max reported 76.8 million global subscribers at the end of Q1 2022 (up from 73.8 million at end-2021), i.e. roughly triple Apple TV+ throughout the window.
Prime Video is reported at ~205 million users; Amazon's Prime membership base exceeded 200 million from 2021 onward, placing Prime Video consistently among the two largest subscription video services during the window.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+0.31- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Apple TV+ breaks into the top five streaming services withi…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-12-26
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources