Full record
MissmarketsThe S&P 500 rallies from about 4,500 to about 5,500 within roughly six months (by 2022-08-02).
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“i anticipate a bull run from 4 500 s p to 5 500 and then a pullback of about 30 to 35 40”
The S&P 500 rallies from about 4,500 to about 5,500 within roughly six months (by 2022-08-02).
- Made on
- 2022-02-02
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.12
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-08-02
The S&P 500 index trades at or above 5,500 (intraday or close) at any point on or before 2022-08-02. The index stood near 4,590 on 2022-02-02.
Criterion met on both legs of checkability: the anchor level (about 4,590 on 2022-02-02) matches the actual 2022-02-02 close of 4,589.38, and the 5,500 trigger is testable on intraday highs. Maximum level achieved in the window was 4,637.30, i.e. roughly 18.6% below the 5,500 threshold; the index's direction over the window was down, not up. No conflicting credible evidence. No outcome value assigned here per stage scope.
Sources
Why Google is my 3rd biggest position
YouTube — Tom Nash (@TomNashTV) ·
Evidence of what happened
Daily OHLC for the S&P 500 index (^GSPC) covering 2022-02-01 through 2022-12-30. On 2022-02-02 the index closed at 4,589.38 (intraday high 4,595.31), consistent with the criterion's stated starting level of about 4,590. Between 2022-02-02 and 2022-08-02 the highest intraday print was 4,637.30 on 2022-03-29 (highest close 4,631.60 the same day). The index never traded at or above 5,500 at any point in the window; it instead fell, reaching an intraday low of 3,636.87 on 2022-06-17 within the same window.
Extended daily OHLC for ^GSPC from 2022-01-03 to 2025-01-31 establishes the broader context: the S&P 500's all-time intraday high as of 2022-02-02 was 4,818.62 (set 2022-01-04), and the index did not print 5,500 on any day until 2024-06-20 — nearly two years after this record's 2022-08-02 deadline.
Human-readable historical price table for the S&P 500 across the February-August 2022 window, for independent verification of the daily highs.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.12- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The S&P 500 rallies from about 4,500 to about 5,500 within…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-02-02
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources