Full record
HiteconomyThe Federal Reserve cuts interest rates at its September 2024 meeting rather than in July 2024.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“the economy hasn't broken yet but it's starting to shake, and that shakiness is where exactly you want to do this before you have to cut rates in a dying economy. The setup is there for the FED to pull the trigger. I don't think they're going to do it in July, but September seems like the proper time.”
The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates at its September 2024 meeting rather than in July 2024.
- Made on
- 2024-07-30
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.27
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-09-18
The FOMC leaves the federal funds target range unchanged at its 2024-07-31 meeting and lowers it at its 2024-09-18 meeting, per the published FOMC statements.
Both legs of this conjunctive criterion are met on the Fed's own published policy statements, with no ambiguity: hold at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent on 2024-07-31, then a cut to 4-3/4 to 5 percent on 2024-09-18. The claim specified the TIMING of the first cut (September rather than July) and that timing is confirmed exactly. The 50 basis point size of the September cut is not part of the written criterion, which requires only that the range be lowered, so the cut's magnitude does not affect resolution. resolved_on is 2024-09-18, the date the second and final leg was satisfied, which falls before the 2024-09-30 deadline. No conflicting evidence. No outcome value assigned at this stage.
Sources
The Stock Market Crash of 2024 Is Starting
Tom Nash (YouTube, @TomNashTV) ·
Evidence of what happened
FOMC statement of July 31, 2024, first leg of the criterion: "In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent." The Committee left the target range UNCHANGED at the 2024-07-31 meeting, exactly as the criterion requires.
FOMC statement of September 18, 2024, second leg of the criterion: "The Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point to 4-3/4 to 5 percent." The Committee LOWERED the target range at the 2024-09-18 meeting, exactly as the criterion requires.
Federal Reserve 2024 FOMC calendar confirming the two meeting dates named in the criterion (July 30-31 and September 17-18, 2024) and linking the published statement for each.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.27- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates at its September 20…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-07-30
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources