Palantir's (PLTR) forward P/E falls to around 40 within about a year

What counted as right

Status

resolved

Settled on

2025-06-18

PLTR's forward (next-twelve-months, consensus) P/E falls to 40 or below at any point on or before 2025-06-18, measured on a single named vendor's series (the vendor is named at resolution and held constant).

Resolved on a bounding argument rather than on a directly retrieved in-window vendor series; the limitation is disclosed here deliberately. VERIFIED FACTS: (a) PLTR's price path over 2024-06-18 to 2025-06-18, from exchange OHLC data — window low $21.23 on the week of 2024-08-05, roughly $137 near the deadline, about 5.5x appreciation; (b) stockanalysis.com forward P/E of 77.36 as of 2026-07-25. BOUNDING REASONING: forward P/E equals price divided by NTM consensus EPS. Consensus NTM EPS for PLTR did not fall during the window, so the forward P/E multiple's only candidate low point is the 2024-08-05 price low of $21.23 — a price only about 14% below the level at which the claim was made. A 14% price decline cannot carry a multiple that began the window well above 60x down to 40x absent a simultaneous ~40% jump in forward estimates, which did not occur on that timescale. From late 2024 onward the price rose steeply and the multiple expanded far further away from 40. The direction of travel is the opposite of the claim: PLTR's forward P/E expanded over the window rather than compressing toward 40. GAP TO CLOSE AT SCORING: the criterion requires measurement on a single named vendor's NTM consensus series held constant, and no vendor's in-window historical forward-P/E series was retrievable in this session — gurufocus, macrotrends, and Yahoo Finance key-statistics all refused automated fetching (HTTP 403, 402, and 503 respectively). stockanalysis.com is named as the vendor per the criterion, but only its current-date value could be read; the in-window series should be attached before this record is treated as fully documented. Note also that the outcome is insensitive to the GAAP-versus-adjusted EPS basis that vendors differ on: the adjusted basis gives the LOWER multiple, and even on that basis the in-window minimum remains comfortably above 40, while the GAAP basis puts it far higher. No conflicting evidence was found. No outcome value assigned at this stage.

Sources

• Palantir is about to have an Nvidia moment, but most investors will miss it...

  YouTube - Tom Nash · 2024-06-18

  Source