Full record
HittechChina will reach 25% electric-vehicle market share by 2025
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hittech“beijing wants 25 percent of electric cars in china by 2025 which is in four years... they're going to get to that 25 real quick”
China will reach 25% electric-vehicle market share by 2025
- Made on
- 2020-09-30
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.86
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-12-31
EVs reach ≥25% of new-vehicle sales/market share in China on or before 2025-12-31
Criterion ('EVs reach ≥25% of new-vehicle sales/market share in China on or before 2025-12-31') satisfied under any reasonable definition — BEV-only (~33%) or NEV/BEV+PHEV (47.9% full-year 2025). Deadline (2025-12-31) has passed and full-year 2025 CAAM data is available. Note: the 25% level was in fact first crossed years earlier (China's full-year NEV penetration passed ~25% in 2022), so the threshold was reached well before the deadline; resolved_on set to the deadline as the definitive full-year confirmation point. Outcome value deferred to scoring.
Sources
MSM just can't stop bashing Tesla... (Truth Optional)
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
China's full-year 2025 new energy vehicle (NEV) penetration was 47.9% of total vehicle sales — 16.49 million NEVs of ~34.4 million total vehicles — far exceeding the 25% threshold. Monthly penetration in 2025 ranged from a low of ~39% (January) to a peak of ~53.2% (November), so it was above 25% in every month of 2025.
Corroborating industry analysis: BEV alone reached ~33% penetration of new passenger-vehicle sales in China in 2025 (BEV = 61.5% of NEV sales), so the ≥25% threshold is met under either a BEV-only or a broad NEV (BEV+PHEV) reading of 'electric-vehicle'.
Corrections
- certainty verbatim marker: A strong high-confidence marker is present; leaving verbatim_marker null understates asserted certainty and biases the p mapping on this scoreable record.
Effect on the score
+2.86- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
China will reach 25% electric-vehicle market share by 2025- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-09-30
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources