Full record
MissmarketsPalantir stock will deliver at least a 5x return within two to three years (by approximately December 2023)
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“these guys have at least the five exponential over the next two to three years if not more”
Palantir stock will deliver at least a 5x return within two to three years (by approximately December 2023)
- Made on
- 2020-12-06
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.33
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-12-06
PLTR's share price reaches at least 5x its 2020-12-06 level at any point on or before ~2023-12-06
Criterion (5x the 2020-12-06 level) not met at any point through ~2023-12-06; peak was ~1.6x. Record resolves; outcome value assigned in a later stage.
Sources
we need to talk... [about Palantir]
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
PLTR's level around 2020-12-06 (last trading day Dec 4, 2020) was ~$27-28/share; a 5x return requires ~$135-140. PLTR's all-time high in the entire 2020-2023 window was only ~$45 (Jan 2021), never approaching 5x before the ~Dec 2023 deadline.
By late December 2023 PLTR traded around $17 (close $17.17 on Dec 29, 2023) — below its own 2020-12-06 level, let alone 5x it. The 5x criterion was never met within the two-to-three-year window.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.33- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Palantir stock will deliver at least a 5x return within two…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-12-06
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources