Full record
MisseconomyThe Federal Reserve's first post-pandemic interest-rate hike will occur no earlier than Q2 2022 (April-June 2022).
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“you're looking at q2 2022 that's the earliest they're gonna do it”
The Federal Reserve's first post-pandemic interest-rate hike will occur no earlier than Q2 2022 (April-June 2022).
- Made on
- 2021-08-29
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.78
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-03-16
The Fed's first post-pandemic rate hike occurs no earlier than 2022-04-01; the claim fails if a hike occurs before that date.
Criterion states the claim FAILS if a hike occurs before 2022-04-01. The first hike occurred 2022-03-16 (Q1 2022), i.e. earlier than the predicted 'no earlier than Q2 2022'. Outcome value not assigned here, but the evidence contradicts the prediction.
Sources
I Can't Believe Jerome Powell Did This
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The FOMC raised the federal funds target by 25bps to 0.25%–0.50% on 2022-03-16 — its first rate hike in more than three years and the first of the post-pandemic cycle. This is before the 2022-04-01 (Q2 2022) threshold in the criterion.
CNBC: Fed approved its first interest-rate hike in more than three years on March 16, 2022, lifting rates off the near-zero level held since the pandemic began.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.78- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Federal Reserve's first post-pandemic interest-rate hik…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-08-29
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources