Full record

Hitgeopolitics

Following the Hamas attack, the Israeli public will demand a massive military response.

A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .

VideoQuote from the original sourcegeopoliticspolitics

Scored prediction

Hitgeopolitics

the Israeli public is going to ask for a massive response

Following the Hamas attack, the Israeli public will demand a massive military response.

Made on
2023-10-08
Outcome
Hit
Importance
4 / 5
Effect on score
+3.82

What counted as right

Status
resolved
Settled on
2023-10-27

Within ~3 months of 2023-10-08, Israeli public opinion and/or government openly calls for a large-scale military operation against Hamas (e.g. a ground invasion of Gaza).

Criterion (large-scale operation openly called for / launched within ~3 months) clearly satisfied: ground invasion of Gaza began 2023-10-27, well inside the 2024-01-08 deadline, backed by broad Israeli public and government support. No conflicting evidence.

Sources

  • The War in Israel (What's REALLY Happening)

    YouTube ·

    Source

Evidence of what happened

  • Israeli government and public overwhelmingly backed a large-scale military response after the Oct 7 attack; Israel launched its ground invasion of Gaza beginning 27 Oct 2023, maintaining a persistent ground presence, following weeks of intensive airstrikes and public mobilization (~360,000 reservists called up).

    Evidence

  • Timeline of key events confirming Israel declared war and mounted a massive military operation against Hamas within days/weeks of Oct 7, with broad public and political support for large-scale action.

    Evidence

Corrections

No public corrections.

Effect on the score

+3.82
How sure they sounded
85%
Outcome
Hit
Importance
4 / 5

This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.

Where this came from

Following the Hamas attack, the Israeli public will demand…
Methodology version
v1.0.0
Last computed
August 2, 2026
Made on
2023-10-08

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