Full record
HitgeopoliticsFollowing the Hamas attack, the Israeli public will demand a massive military response.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitgeopolitics“the Israeli public is going to ask for a massive response”
Following the Hamas attack, the Israeli public will demand a massive military response.
- Made on
- 2023-10-08
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.82
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-10-27
Within ~3 months of 2023-10-08, Israeli public opinion and/or government openly calls for a large-scale military operation against Hamas (e.g. a ground invasion of Gaza).
Criterion (large-scale operation openly called for / launched within ~3 months) clearly satisfied: ground invasion of Gaza began 2023-10-27, well inside the 2024-01-08 deadline, backed by broad Israeli public and government support. No conflicting evidence.
Sources
The War in Israel (What's REALLY Happening)
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Israeli government and public overwhelmingly backed a large-scale military response after the Oct 7 attack; Israel launched its ground invasion of Gaza beginning 27 Oct 2023, maintaining a persistent ground presence, following weeks of intensive airstrikes and public mobilization (~360,000 reservists called up).
Timeline of key events confirming Israel declared war and mounted a massive military operation against Hamas within days/weeks of Oct 7, with broad public and political support for large-scale action.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.82- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Following the Hamas attack, the Israeli public will demand…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-10-08
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources