Full record
MissmarketsAlibaba will post strong Q4 2021 results, rebounding from its prior quarterly miss
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“there probably will have a really good q4 with singles day and you know christmas coming up and all that good stuff and they will probably bounce back”
Alibaba will post strong Q4 2021 results, rebounding from its prior quarterly miss
- Made on
- 2021-11-18
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- -0.56
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-02-24
Alibaba's Dec-2021 quarter is a genuinely strong result that beats revenue/earnings consensus and reverses the prior deceleration (mere positive YoY growth does not satisfy, since the claim was 'really good q4 / bounce back').
Facts fully known, so status=resolved. But the record's criterion has an 'and/or' with an internal tension: the revenue-growth clause is satisfied (+10% YoY), while the consensus-beat clause and the 'strong results, rebounding from prior miss' framing are NOT (revenue missed, EPS/net income missed badly, stock fell — it was another miss, not a rebound). Downstream quantify/verify stage must decide how the 'and/or reversing the prior miss' criterion adjudicates conflicting sub-clauses; not assigning an outcome value here. Both sides documented above.
Sources
The Ugly TRUTH about LUCID [and RIVIAN]
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Alibaba's Dec-2021 quarter (ended Dec 31, 2021), reported Feb 24, 2022: total revenue RMB242,580M (US$38,066M), up 10% YoY. The YoY-revenue-growth clause of the criterion is met (China commerce +7%, Cloud +20%, Local consumer services +27%, International commerce +18%).
Contrary side: results were NOT a 'strong rebound / beat.' Revenue RMB242.58B MISSED consensus (~RMB245B); net income fell 74% YoY to RMB20.43B, worse than the ~60% drop analysts expected; shares fell on the print. 10% YoY was Alibaba's slowest revenue growth on record at the time — a decelerating quarter, another miss rather than a reversal of the prior miss.
Corrections
- What counted as right: The 'and/or' with a trivial positive-YoY clause lets a decelerating consensus miss count as satisfied, contradicting the verbatim ('really good q4', 'bounce back'). Tightening prevents quantify from scoring a miss as a hit. Facts are known, so this is a criterion-wording fix, not genuine uncertainty.
Effect on the score
-0.56- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Alibaba will post strong Q4 2021 results, rebounding from i…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-11-18
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources