Full record
MisseconomyThe auto industry will face very difficult conditions over the next two years (through early 2025), with a recession and consumers buying fewer new cars.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“what does the future bring for the Auto industry not good things for the next two years the next two years are going to be very very hard for the other industry interest rates are going up the recession is coming people will buy less new cars it's a fact”
The auto industry will face very difficult conditions over the next two years (through early 2025), with a recession and consumers buying fewer new cars.
- Made on
- 2023-01-04
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- -3.53
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-01-04
US new-vehicle sales decline and recessionary conditions materialize across the 2023-2024 window.
Criterion required BOTH a US new-vehicle sales decline AND recessionary conditions across 2023-2024. Neither occurred: sales rose each year, and NBER declared no US recession in that window. Prediction's core resolves false. Deadline 2025-01-04 passed.
Sources
Tesla Stock Hits New Lows | what's next?
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
US light-vehicle sales ROSE across the window: ~13.9M (2022) to ~15.5M (2023) to ~15.9M (2024, up 2.2% YoY, highest since 2019) per Wards Intelligence — the opposite of the predicted decline in new-car buying.
US light-vehicle sales series (Statista/Wards) confirms the 2023 and 2024 year-over-year increases, with no full-year sales contraction in the window.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-3.53- How sure they sounded
- 97%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The auto industry will face very difficult conditions over…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-01-04
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources