Full record
HiteconomyUS inflation will decline over the second half of 2024
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“I believe that inflation will drop in the second half of this year which is going to lead to lower interest rates”
US inflation will decline over the second half of 2024
- Made on
- 2024-05-10
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.02
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-01-15
US headline (or core) CPI year-over-year inflation is lower in December 2024 than in June 2024.
Criterion met on both measures: headline CPI YoY 3.0% (Jun) -> 2.9% (Dec) and core CPI YoY 3.3% -> 3.2%. The decline is small and non-monotonic (inflation ticked up late in the year), but the June-vs-December comparison in the written criterion is satisfied. Resolution dated to the Dec 2024 CPI release.
Sources
URGENT WARNING TO ALL INVESTORS (NOBODY WILL SEE THIS COMING)
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
BLS CPI: headline CPI-U year-over-year was 3.0% in June 2024 and 2.9% in December 2024, so December YoY inflation is lower than June. Core CPI YoY fell from 3.3% (June 2024) to 3.2% (December 2024).
BLS news release for December 2024 CPI (published Jan 15 2025) reporting all-items 12-month change of 2.9% for December 2024.
BLS news release for June 2024 CPI reporting all-items 12-month change of 3.0% for June 2024.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.02- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
US inflation will decline over the second half of 2024- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-05-10
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources