Full record
MisstechPalantir's top-20 client concentration (then 61%) will fall well below 40% of revenue by 2021-12-31.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Misstech“I expect by the end of this year this number is going to be well below 40.”
Palantir's top-20 client concentration (then 61%) will fall well below 40% of revenue by 2021-12-31.
- Made on
- 2021-08-12
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- -0.56
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-02-17
Palantir's top-20 client concentration falls below 40% of revenue by 2021-12-31 (per Q4 2021 disclosure).
Criterion: top-20 concentration falls below 40% of revenue by 2021-12-31 per Q4 2021 disclosure. Computed ~57% (≈ 20 × $43.6M / $1.542B) → threshold not met. resolved_on = FY2021 results/10-K release date (2022-02-17), the first date the Q4/FY2021 disclosure became available. Minor caveat: the ~57% is derived from the disclosed top-20 AVERAGE revenue times 20 over total revenue rather than a directly-stated 'top-20 = X%' line, but the gap to 40% is very large so the resolution is robust. SEC 10-K page returns HTTP 403 to automated fetch but is the cited primary source; figure corroborated via search of the filing. No conflicting evidence.
Sources
PLTR: Remaining Very Bullish After Stellar Q2 Earnings
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Palantir's FY2021 10-K disclosed average revenue from its top-twenty customers of $43.6M each for the trailing twelve months ended Dec 31, 2021 (up 31% from $33.2M in 2020). That implies ~$872M in top-20 revenue against FY2021 total revenue of ~$1.542B (41% growth) → top-20 concentration ≈ 57%. This is NOT 'well below 40%'; concentration fell only modestly from the ~61% cited in the claim.
FY2021 total revenue confirmation: Palantir reported $1.54B FY2021 revenue (up 41% Y/Y), released 2022-02-17.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-0.56- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Palantir's top-20 client concentration (then 61%) will fall…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-08-12
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources