Full record
Missmarkets2023 will be a bad year for the stock market (continued bear conditions, no meaningful recovery)
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“I still hold the opinion it's going to be absolute dog [ __ ] next year”
2023 will be a bad year for the stock market (continued bear conditions, no meaningful recovery)
- Made on
- 2022-10-18
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.78
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-12-31
The S&P 500 posts a negative total return for calendar-year 2023 (or spends the majority of the year in a bear market with no durable recovery).
Both prongs of the criterion fail: 2023 total return was decidedly positive (not negative), and the index was in a durable recovery/new bull phase (it crossed into a bull market in mid-2023 and neared record highs by year-end), not a majority-year bear market. Prediction did not come to pass; outcome value assigned later.
Sources
Important Update For Long Term Investors
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Corrections
- horizon type: Verbatim says 'next year' (relative phrase resolved via the deadline table), not an explicitly stated date.
- Prediction timeframe: Cite the actual triggering phrase and the table rule applied; the pundit did not say '2023' in the verbatim.
Effect on the score
-1.78- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
2023 will be a bad year for the stock market (continued bea…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-10-18
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources