Full record
HitmarketsIf war breaks out in Ukraine, the stock market will suffer.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“If a war actually breaks out I mean, the stock market is going to suffer from this.”
If war breaks out in Ukraine, the stock market will suffer.
- Made on
- 2022-02-13
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.86
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-05-13
Conditional on war: major equity indices (S&P 500 / European indices) decline in the weeks following the invasion.
Minor nuance: the S&P actually reversed to close UP on invasion day (24 Feb) and briefly rebounded in late March before falling again — but 'in the weeks following the invasion' the index was clearly lower, so the criterion is met.
Sources
What Putin REALLY Wants? (And Why He Isn't Bluffing)
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
War broke out (invasion 24 Feb 2022), triggering the conditional. S&P 500 fell 2.4% on invasion day to a nine-month low; Nasdaq 100 dropped 2.9% into bear-market territory. Over the following weeks equities remained weak — S&P 500 closed 24 Feb at ~4,288 and was down ~8% (~3,941) three months later; by the 13 May 2022 deadline the S&P traded near ~4,020, below the invasion-day close. European indices (Stoxx 600/DAX) also sold off sharply. Matches criterion of major indices declining in the weeks after the invasion.
Bloomberg: 'S&P 500 Plunges to Nine-Month Low as Russia Invades Ukraine' — 10 of 11 sectors lower, energy the main exception. Corroborates the immediate and sustained equity weakness in the weeks following the invasion.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.86- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
If war breaks out in Ukraine, the stock market will suffer.- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-02-13
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources