Full record
MisseconomyA US recession begins within roughly one year of April 2022
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“that recession is probably a year away”
A US recession begins within roughly one year of April 2022
- Made on
- 2022-04-06
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.4
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-04-06
A US recession (NBER-dated) begins within roughly 12 months of April 2022 (by ~2023-04-06).
Criterion: NBER-dated recession begins within ~12 months of April 2022 (by ~2023-04-06). NBER dated no recession in that window (none since 2020), so the criterion is cleanly evaluable and the window has closed. NBER dates retrospectively, but multiple years on it remains undated. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
Don't panic. Relax. Everything will be fine 👊
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
NBER's official US business-cycle chronology lists the most recent peak as February 2020 (trough April 2020) and no subsequent peak. No US recession was dated as beginning between April 2022 and April 2023, so no NBER-dated recession began within ~12 months of April 2022.
NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee announcements show no new recession-start (peak) declaration for 2022 or 2023; the committee has not dated any recession since the COVID contraction.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.4- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
A US recession begins within roughly one year of April 2022- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-04-06
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources