Full record
MissmarketsPalantir stock will stay in the $6-8 range and will not break above $8 (nor attract renewed institutional money) until the company posts positive EBITDA/results.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“this is going to be a six seven dollar stock maybe eight but that threshold will not be broken until piloted delivers actual results”
Palantir stock will stay in the $6-8 range and will not break above $8 (nor attract renewed institutional money) until the company posts positive EBITDA/results.
- Made on
- 2022-12-20
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.33
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-02-08
Palantir does not sustainably close above $8 before it reports positive EBITDA/GAAP results, within 36 months of the call.
Criterion is resolvable and the ordering FALSIFIES the prediction: PLTR closed above $8 for six straight sessions (Feb 1-8, 2023, up to $8.99) before the 2023-02-13 positive GAAP results. Threshold broken before the gate → MISS. Quantify should set o=0.
Sources
The Problem With Palantir Stock
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Palantir reported its FIRST quarter of positive GAAP net income (Q4 2022, GAAP EPS $0.01, ~$31M net income) after market close on 2023-02-13. This is the 'positive EBITDA/GAAP results' condition in the criterion.
Before those results, PLTR traded in the $6-8 range (≈$6 on 2022-12-27, near the ~$6-8 call level on 2022-12-20) and did NOT sustainably close above $8. The break above $8 came only AFTER the first-profit announcement: shares surged ~19-20% on 2023-02-14 on the profitability news, i.e., the move above $8 coincided with / followed the positive results, not before them.
Corrections
- resolution resolved on: Outcome determinable once PLTR sustained six consecutive closes above $8 (2023-02-01 → 02-08), all before the 2023-02-13 positive-results gate.
- resolution notes: Align the resolution note with the corrected evidence: this is a miss, not a hit.
Effect on the score
-1.33- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Palantir stock will stay in the $6-8 range and will not bre…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-12-20
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources