Palantir will grow its commercial/corporate revenue to 70–80% of total revenue within two to three years (by approximately December 2023)

A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on 2020-12-06.

VideoQuote from the original sourcetechmarkets

Scored prediction

Misstech

“they're going to go to 70 80 of their business on the corporate side within the next two or three years easy”

Palantir will grow its commercial/corporate revenue to 70–80% of total revenue within two to three years (by approximately December 2023)

Commercial/corporate revenue reaches at least 70% of Palantir's total revenue in reported financials on or before ~2023-12-06

Written threshold is commercial ≥70% of total. FY2023 commercial share ~45%; criterion not met. Resolved; outcome value assigned later.

For FY2023, Palantir's commercial revenue was ~$1.00B, about 45% of total revenue, while government revenue was ~$1.22B (~55%). Commercial never reached the 70-80% share; if anything government remained the larger segment throughout 2021-2023.
Evidence
Palantir's own FY2022/FY2023 earnings releases (SEC 8-K exhibits) report a commercial/government revenue split near 45%/55%, confirming commercial stayed roughly at/under half of total revenue through the ~Dec 2023 deadline — well short of 70%.
Evidence

No public corrections.

-1.33

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Palantir will grow its commercial/corporate revenue to 70–8…