Full record
75% rightpoliticsAs the plurality winner of the 2023 Dutch election, Wilders will get to determine who becomes the next Dutch prime minister, provided he can form a coalition.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
75% rightpolitics“He will actually get to determine who's going to be the next prime minister, assuming of course he can form a coalition.”
As the plurality winner of the 2023 Dutch election, Wilders will get to determine who becomes the next Dutch prime minister, provided he can form a coalition.
- Made on
- 2023-11-23
- Outcome
- 75% right
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.92
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-07-02
Wilders' PVV, as the plurality winner, leads coalition formation and determines the identity of the next Dutch prime minister, conditional on a coalition being formed.
Criterion (PVV, as plurality winner, leads coalition formation and determines the identity of the next PM, conditional on a coalition forming) is met: a coalition formed and PVV was the leading/central party in the negotiations that produced Schoof as PM. Note the outcome is nuanced — Wilders personally did not become PM (partners vetoed him), but the criterion is about determining WHO becomes PM via the coalition he led, which occurred. The government later collapsed in June 2025 when Wilders withdrew PVV, but that is after the deadline and does not affect resolution.
Sources
What JUST Happened in The Netherlands
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
After Wilders' PVV won a plurality in the Nov 2023 election, PVV led a four-party coalition formation (PVV, VVD, NSC, BBB). Wilders gave up his own PM ambition; the coalition he assembled selected former intelligence chief Dick Schoof, who was sworn in as Dutch PM on 2024-07-02.
Corrections
- conditional condition met: The condition (Wilders/PVV able to form a governing coalition) objectively occurred — the PVV-led four-party coalition formed and produced PM Schoof on 2024-07-02. A resolved conditional whose antecedent held must record condition_met=true; leaving it null would incorrectly void the record.
Effect on the score
+3.92- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- 75% right
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
As the plurality winner of the 2023 Dutch election, Wilders…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-11-23
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources