Full record
MissmarketsSignificant capital will rotate from money-market funds back into equities in the second half of 2024 ahead of expected Fed rate cuts
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“in the second half of the year you're going to see the floodgates open a lot of these money managers will have a decision to make”
Significant capital will rotate from money-market funds back into equities in the second half of 2024 ahead of expected Fed rate cuts
- Made on
- 2024-07-05
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.33
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-12-31
Fund-flow data show net inflows from money-market funds into equities during H2 2024
Criterion is specific: 'net inflows FROM money-market funds INTO equities during H2 2024.' The primary fund-flow evidence shows money-market fund balances rose to record highs across H2 2024 (net inflows to money funds, not out of them), so the specific 'from money-market funds' rotation the claim describes did not occur, even though equities separately enjoyed record inflows. Facts are consistent (both pools grew), not conflicting. Resolved as of the 2024-12-31 measurement-window close. Outcome value/scoring is a later stage.
Sources
IT'S STARTING: Jamie Dimon Just Did The UNTHINKABLE
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
ICI data: taxable US money-market fund assets did NOT drain out during H2 2024 — they GREW to a record $6.852 trillion at year-end 2024 (up $933.1B over the full year), continuing to set records through the second half rather than shrinking. This contradicts the predicted net rotation OUT of money-market funds.
Money-market assets set successive records mid-H2: a record $6.47 trillion by 2024-10-10 per Bloomberg, and ~$6.9 trillion at Q3-end per OFR — i.e., continued net INflows to money funds through H2 2024, not outflows into equities.
Counter-context (both sides): equity funds did see strong inflows in H2 2024, with global equity-fund net sales hitting a record in Q4 2024 and equity ETF inflows at records. However, these coincided with money-market assets ALSO growing, indicating equity inflows came from new/other cash rather than a measurable net rotation FROM money-market funds.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.33- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Significant capital will rotate from money-market funds bac…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-07-05
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources