Full record
MisseconomyUS unemployment spikes sharply upward from 3.7% imminently (by ~2023-04-05).
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“The employment or unemployment market is about to go berserk, from 3.7 to 567.”
US unemployment spikes sharply upward from 3.7% imminently (by ~2023-04-05).
- Made on
- 2023-01-05
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.33
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-04-05
The US (U-3) unemployment rate rises at least ~0.5 percentage points above 3.7% by ~2023-04-05.
The relevant monthly prints available by ~2023-04-05 (Jan–Mar 2023: 3.4/3.6/3.5%) show the rate moving down, not up ~0.5pp. Resolved; prediction did not come to pass.
Sources
This stock market is acting a fool…
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Over the criterion window, U-3 did not rise ~0.5pp above the 3.7% baseline; it fell instead — Jan 2023 3.4% (a 50-year low), Feb 3.6%, Mar 3.5%. The threshold (~4.2%+) was never approached.
BLS/DOL reporting shows unemployment in early 2023 near multi-decade lows (3.4% in Jan/Apr 2023), not a sharp upward spike.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.33- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
US unemployment spikes sharply upward from 3.7% imminently…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-01-05
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources