Full record
MissmarketsTesla (TSLA) does not trade below $420 per share again (that level is the floor).
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“i told you 420 it's the bottom i told you in today's video 420 is the rock bottom i told you that”
Tesla (TSLA) does not trade below $420 per share again (that level is the floor).
- Made on
- 2020-10-21
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.33
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2020-10-23
Resolves TRUE if TSLA never trades below $420 on the then-current post-August-2020 5:1-split basis (equivalently below $140 after the August-2022 3:1 split) at any point between 2020-10-22 and 2023-10-21; a single intraday print below that level resolves it FALSE.
The criterion specifies that a single intraday print below the level resolves it FALSE, and that the window runs 2020-10-22 to 2023-10-21 on the post-August-2020 5:1-split basis ($420), equivalently $140 post-August-2022 3:1 split. The first qualifying intraday print occurred on 2020-10-23, two days after the claim was made, at $135.79 adjusted ($407.37 unadjusted). resolved_on is set to that first-breach date rather than the deadline, since the criterion is a one-touch condition. Split arithmetic: Yahoo's quote series is split-adjusted (TSLA pays no dividends, so adjusted = split-adjusted); multiply by 3 to restore the 5:1-split basis in which the prediction was stated. Cross-check: the 2020-10-23 adjusted close of $140.21 corresponds to the widely reported unadjusted close of $420.63 that day, confirming the adjustment factor. No conflicting evidence.
Sources
WOW! Tesla (TSLA) drops a huge bombshell with Q3 2020 results
YouTube - Tom Nash (@TomNashTV) ·
Evidence of what happened
TSLA daily OHLC from Yahoo Finance for 2020-10-22 onward (prices split-adjusted for the August-2022 3:1 split, so the criterion's threshold is $140). The very first full session inside the window, 2020-10-23, printed a low of $135.79 adjusted = $407.37 on the then-current post-August-2020 5:1-split basis — below the $420 floor. Rows: 2020-10-22 O 147.31 H 148.41 L 141.50 C 141.93; 2020-10-23 O 140.61 H 140.96 L 135.79 C 140.21; 2020-10-26 L 136.67; 2020-10-27 L 140.03; 2020-10-28 L 135.33 C 135.34; 2020-10-29 L 135.49; 2020-10-30 O 135.63 H 135.86 L 126.37 C 129.35 (= $379.11 unadjusted).
Monthly TSLA lows across the full window 2020-10-22 to 2023-10-21 confirm far deeper and sustained breaches well after the initial one: December 2022 monthly low $108.24 and January 2023 monthly low $101.81 (split-adjusted), equivalent to roughly $325 and $305 on the 5:1-split basis the prediction was stated in — i.e. about 75% below the claimed $420 floor.
Human-readable TSLA historical price table covering the October-November 2020 window, for independent verification of the daily lows above.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.33- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Tesla (TSLA) does not trade below $420 per share again (tha…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2020-10-21
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources