Full record
MisseconomyThe US unemployment rate rises to 5% (pushed there by Fed tightening) by early 2023.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“The FED is about to push it to five percent unemployment.”
The US unemployment rate rises to 5% (pushed there by Fed tightening) by early 2023.
- Made on
- 2022-12-22
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.33
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-03-22
The US BLS U-3 unemployment rate reaches 5.0% on or before 2023-03-22.
Criterion: BLS U-3 reaches 5.0% on or before 2023-03-22. The relevant reading (Feb 2023 report, released 2023-03-10, covering the last data point before the deadline) was 3.6%, and March was 3.5%. Event did not happen; resolvable against official BLS data.
Sources
What You Need to Do to Prepare for the Upcoming Recession
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
BLS seasonally-adjusted U-3 unemployment rate: January 2023 = 3.4%, February 2023 = 3.6%, March 2023 = 3.5%. The rate never approached 5.0% at or before the 2023-03-22 deadline; it was near a 50-year low.
BLS Monthly Labor Review confirms the U-3 rate stayed in a narrow 3.4%–3.8% band throughout all of 2023, never reaching 5.0%.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.33- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The US unemployment rate rises to 5% (pushed there by Fed t…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-12-22
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources