Full record
HitmarketsLarge-cap tech (Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon) will boom in 2021 and outperform small-cap tech
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“I think we're going to see a huge boom in the big tech, the Googles, the Microsofts, the Facebooks, the Amazons. That's where tech is going to actually push forward this year”
Large-cap tech (Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon) will boom in 2021 and outperform small-cap tech
- Made on
- 2021-04-12
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.27
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2021-12-31
An equal-weight basket of GOOGL, MSFT, META, AMZN posts a strong positive 2021 return and outperforms a comparable small-cap tech basket over 2021
Both clauses met: (a) the equal-weight GOOGL/MSFT/META/AMZN basket posted a strong positive 2021 return (~+35%); (b) it outperformed comparable small-cap tech (ARKK -23.4%; large caps beat small caps post-March 2021). The criterion's 'comparable small-cap tech basket' is not pinned to a single named index, but the outperformance direction is robust across reasonable proxies (ARKK, S&P SmallCap 600 IT, Russell 2000). Minor source discrepancy on exact per-name figures (e.g. AMZN cited as +2.4% vs +8.2%, MSFT +51% vs +52%) does not change the strongly-positive basket result. No outcome value assigned per Stage 1.
Sources
We need to talk about the Elon Musk Cathie Wood drama...
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
2021 full-year price returns: Alphabet (GOOGL) ~+65%, Microsoft (MSFT) ~+51%, Meta/Facebook (META) ~+23%, Amazon (AMZN) +2.4% (AMZN was the notable large-cap laggard). An equal-weight basket returned roughly +35% - a strong positive 2021 return.
Small-cap / disruptive-growth tech underperformed sharply in 2021: the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) returned -23.38% for full-year 2021. Broad market commentary confirms large caps (incl. large-cap tech) led small caps from March 2021 onward.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.27- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Large-cap tech (Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon) will boo…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-04-12
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources