Full record
MissenergyThe next two European winters (2022-23 and 2023-24) will be extremely difficult because of the Russian energy cutoff and the multi-year transition off Russian gas.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Missenergy“the winters for the next two years for in Europe are going to be insanely difficult”
The next two European winters (2022-23 and 2023-24) will be extremely difficult because of the Russian energy cutoff and the multi-year transition off Russian gas.
- Made on
- 2022-09-02
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Effect on score
- -2.22
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-03-31
Across winters 2022-23 and 2023-24 (by 2024-03-31), Europe endures severe, sustained energy-driven hardship (rationing, crisis-level prices, or major economic disruption) attributable to the Russian energy cutoff.
Criterion required severe, sustained energy-driven hardship (rationing, crisis-level prices, or major economic disruption) across BOTH winters by 2024-03-31. Both winters passed without rationing, with full storage and steadily falling prices. Authoritative sources (IEA, Bruegel). No outcome value assigned (later stage).
Sources
Mohamed El-Erian Is Predicting an Even Bigger Crash
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Winter 2022-23: IEA documents Europe avoided rationing/blackouts; record demand fall and rapidly declining prices — no sustained severe hardship attributable to the Russian cutoff.
Winter 2023-24: Bruegel — the EU entered the 2023-24 gas season well-prepared, hitting its 90% storage target ~two months ahead of the November deadline, with structurally lower demand and expanded LNG import capacity; the winter 'de-risked' and no supply emergency or rationing materialised.
TTF gas prices normalised further into early 2024 (roughly €25-30/MWh, a fraction of the 2022 peak of ~€340/MWh), reflecting full storage and weak demand rather than crisis conditions.
Corrections
- Date: Verbatim is spoken in 8yxHdeuxVXo (upload_date 2022-09-02), not the cited T6et1Rce0FU (2022-09-05) where the words do not occur.
Effect on the score
-2.22- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The next two European winters (2022-23 and 2023-24) will be…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-09-02
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources