Full record
HitenergyEuropean gas shortages will worsen further before the end of winter 2021-22.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitenergy“There's going to be gas shortages in Europe even worse than they are right now in the middle of this winter.”
European gas shortages will worsen further before the end of winter 2021-22.
- Made on
- 2022-02-21
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.82
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-03-31
Before end of winter 2021-22, European gas supply tightness deepens (e.g. TTF gas prices spike above pre-invasion levels by late March 2022).
Criterion ('supply tightness deepens; e.g. TTF above pre-invasion levels by late March 2022') satisfied: late-March TTF (~€100–124/MWh) sat clearly above the pre-invasion early/mid-February level. resolved_on set to the deadline (2022-03-31).
Sources
Did Putin Just declare War on Ukraine? This is not good…
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Dutch TTF front-month gas surged ~28% to ≈€114/MWh on the 2022-02-24 invasion day (from a lower pre-invasion February level), then spiked far higher in early-to-mid March 2022 (intraday records around €200–345/MWh) and remained elevated around €100–124/MWh through late March — well above pre-invasion levels, meeting the written trigger.
IEA/market analyses confirm European supply tightness deepened through the 2021–22 winter and into spring 2022 as Russia cut pipeline flows and storage was unusually low, driving the price shock.
Corrections
- conditional is conditional: Claim is delivered inside the 'If it escalates to a full-on war' consequence list, identical framing to the sibling record which is correctly marked conditional.
- conditional condition: Capture the antecedent so it matches the source and the sibling record.
- conditional condition met: Full-scale invasion 2022-02-24 satisfied the antecedent within the window; resolution outcome unchanged.
Effect on the score
+3.82- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
European gas shortages will worsen further before the end o…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-02-21
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources