Full record
HiteconomyUS inflation will remain elevated and persistent for years, not quickly subsiding.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“inflation is going to be quite persistent”
US inflation will remain elevated and persistent for years, not quickly subsiding.
- Made on
- 2022-11-29
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Effect on score
- +4.77
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-11-29
US CPI inflation remains materially above the Fed's 2% target for multiple years, i.e., through roughly late 2025.
Criterion ('CPI materially above 2% for multiple years through roughly late 2025') is directly met: CPI remained above 2% every year 2023, 2024, 2025. 'Materially above' is a judgment threshold for the scoring stage — figures were roughly 0.7-2 pts above target in 2024-2025, further above in 2023. Recommend confirming exact December-2025 CPI print from BLS at score time for precision.
Sources
Will The Protests in China Really Make a Difference?
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
US CPI stayed materially above the Fed's 2% target across multiple consecutive years after the call: elevated through 2023, +2.9% for the 12 months ending December 2024 (BLS), and roughly ~2.7-3% through 2025. Inflation declined from its 2022 peak but did not quickly subside to target — it remained above 2% for the full multi-year window through late 2025.
Secondary corroboration of the annual trajectory: CPI ~2.9% (2024) and ~2.7% (2025), both above the 2% target, with inflation persisting rather than returning to target across 2023-2025.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+4.77- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 5 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
US inflation will remain elevated and persistent for years,…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-11-29
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources