Full record
MissenergyEnergy prices will spike out of control and heating costs will soar over the coming winter (2022-2023)
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Missenergy“The energy market is going to go out of control. Winter is coming. Heating costs are going to go through the roof.”
Energy prices will spike out of control and heating costs will soar over the coming winter (2022-2023)
- Made on
- 2022-11-18
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.78
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-03-31
European/US energy and heating costs (nat-gas / power / heating fuel) rise sharply during winter 2022-2023, reaching notably elevated levels.
The prediction (energy prices 'spike out of control,' heating costs 'soar' over winter 2022-2023) was decisively NOT borne out. Both the European (TTF) and US (Henry Hub) benchmarks fell substantially through the winter due to a mild winter, demand reduction, high storage, and strong production. Heating costs eased rather than soared relative to autumn 2022 peaks. Note on framing: absolute price levels were still historically elevated versus pre-2021 norms (especially in Europe), but the criterion's operative claim — a sharp winter spike to notably elevated/out-of-control levels — is contradicted by the observed sharp DECLINE from the autumn 2022 highs across the winter window. Outcome value/scoring deferred to the quantify stage.
Sources
Michael Burry: "You have no idea how short I am"
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
European natural gas (TTF) prices FELL sharply through winter 2022-2023 rather than spiking. TTF dropped from a record high above €330/MWh in late August 2022 to below €75/MWh in early January 2023 (trading below €75 since Jan 2), driven by a historically warm winter, record-high demand suppression, and near-record storage (~36% above the 10-year average entering the new year). By late Feb 2023 prices fell to 1.5-year lows (~€45-50/MWh).
US Henry Hub natural gas prices declined sharply during the winter, contrary to the EIA's pre-winter forecast of an elevated ~$6.09/MMBtu average. The Henry Hub spot price fell 41% (−$2.26/MMBtu) in January 2023 vs December 2022, driven by warmer-than-average temperatures (warmest January since 2006; 16% fewer heating degree days than the 10-year average) and record production. Residential/commercial heating gas consumption ran ~15% below the five-year average for the month. The 2023 annual Henry Hub average was $2.57/MMBtu, ~62% below the 2022 average.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.78- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Energy prices will spike out of control and heating costs w…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-11-18
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources