Full record
HitgeopoliticsSaudi Arabia's MBS will keep publicly entertaining the yuan-for-oil deal as leverage, without actually signing it, for the next several years.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitgeopolitics“the mere threat can continue for a long time all mbs mohammed bin salman needs to do for the past few months and for the next few years he's not even signed this he just keeps saying that he's considering”
Saudi Arabia's MBS will keep publicly entertaining the yuan-for-oil deal as leverage, without actually signing it, for the next several years.
- Made on
- 2022-03-15
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.86
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-03-15
By the end of the window Saudi Arabia has not finalized/signed a yuan-for-oil payment agreement while continuing to publicly float it.
Across the 2022-03-15 → 2025-03-15 window, Saudi Arabia repeatedly and publicly entertained yuan-for-oil pricing (and joined mBridge in June 2024) without finalizing/signing a yuan-for-oil payment agreement — matching the criterion. Caveat: some low-quality/undated outlets (e.g. a pgurus piece and an April 2026 'secret deal' blog post dated AFTER the window) assert a de-facto arrangement; these are not credible confirmations of a signed agreement within the window and none document a finalized deal by 2025-03-15. Primary/high-quality sources (S&P Global) confirm no signed deal.
Sources
Why OPEC Will Never Switch To Yuan Instead of Dollars 💵
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
S&P Global special report 'Saudi-China ties and renminbi-based oil trade' (Aug 2024): talks to price some Saudi oil in yuan remain active but no formal yuan-for-oil payment agreement has been signed; yuan use in Saudi-China oil trade remains limited, partly due to the riyal's dollar peg and FX risk.
Arab News (2024) reporting on the S&P Global analysis: growing Saudi-China relations 'may lead to' yuan-based oil trade — i.e., prospective, not concluded, throughout the window; topic continues to be publicly floated.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.86- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Saudi Arabia's MBS will keep publicly entertaining the yuan…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-03-15
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources