Full record
HitmarketsPalantir (PLTR) stock spikes when the US-Iran conflict begins.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“And that stock will offer you a spike when a conflict starts because it has a very strong exposure to defense because of its government defense project which about 50% of its business.”
Palantir (PLTR) stock spikes when the US-Iran conflict begins.
- Made on
- 2026-02-27
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.86
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2026-03-02
PLTR closes at least 5% above its 2026-02-27 close at some point within 30 days of the start of the US-Iran conflict (window capped at 2026-03-31). A 'spike' is operationalized as that >=5% gain versus the pre-conflict close; a flat or lower path over the window resolves false.
Two independent facts were needed and both are pinned: conflict start date (2026-02-28) and PLTR's close path versus its 2026-02-27 baseline of $137.19. The move was not marginal or transient — the first post-conflict close cleared the threshold and the stock held >=+7% for most of March, so the 'flat or lower path' failure condition clearly does not apply. resolved_on is the date the criterion was first satisfied (2026-03-02). Note for the verifier: the conflict start date rests on encyclopedic secondary reporting (Wikipedia, itself citing contemporaneous wire coverage) because this session's WebSearch budget was exhausted and direct wire-service fetches were unavailable; the date is not in dispute across the sources consulted. No outcome value assigned per stage scope.
Sources
The US Iran Conflict Will Make (Smart) Investors Rich
YouTube - Tom Nash ·
Evidence of what happened
Wikipedia's article on the 2026 Iran war dates the start of the US-Iran conflict to 28 February 2026: Trump authorized Operation Epic Fury on 27 February, and US missiles/drones plus Israeli aircraft began striking Iran at approximately 09:45 Iran time on 28 February 2026, with Iranian retaliation (Operation True Promise IV) following within hours. 2026-02-28 was a Saturday, so the first US trading session after the conflict began was Monday 2026-03-02.
Yahoo Finance daily closes for PLTR: reference close on 2026-02-27 was $137.19, making the +5% trigger $144.05. PLTR closed at $145.17 on 2026-03-02 (+5.8% vs the pre-conflict close), the first session after the conflict began, and stayed above the trigger continuously through 2026-03-25, peaking at a $160.84 close on 2026-03-23 (+17.2%). The criterion's >=5% gain was therefore met on 2026-03-02, well inside both the 30-day-from-conflict-start window and the 2026-03-31 cap.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.86- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Palantir (PLTR) stock spikes when the US-Iran conflict begi…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2026-02-27
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources