Full record
50% righttechTesla produces approximately 3 million vehicles per year by the end of 2023
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
50% righttech“by 2023, we're probably looking at 3 million vehicles per year”
Tesla produces approximately 3 million vehicles per year by the end of 2023
- Made on
- 2022-01-13
- Outcome
- 50% right
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.46
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-12-31
Tesla reaches an annualized vehicle production run-rate of ~3,000,000 by 2023-12-31.
Criterion ('~3,000,000 annualized production run-rate by 2023-12-31') is NOT met. Both full-year output (1.846M) and the Q4-2023 annualized run-rate (~1.98M) fall roughly a third short of ~3 million.
Sources
Tesla's Fair Value - Overvalued or Undervalued?
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Tesla produced 1,845,985 vehicles in full-year 2023 (up 35% YoY). Q4 2023 production was ~494,989 vehicles, an annualized run-rate of ~1.98 million — well short of ~3 million.
Tesla FY2023 8-K (SEC filing) confirming full-year 2023 production and delivery figures (production 1.85M; deliveries 1.81M).
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.46- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- 50% right
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Tesla produces approximately 3 million vehicles per year by…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-01-13
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources