Full record
25% rightmarketsTesla will produce 100,000 Cybertrucks in 2025.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
25% rightmarkets“2025 I think we can see 100,000”
Tesla will produce 100,000 Cybertrucks in 2025.
- Made on
- 2023-12-07
- Outcome
- 25% right
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +1.36
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2026-01-02
Tesla produces ~100,000 Cybertrucks during calendar year 2025.
Criterion (~100,000 Cybertrucks produced in calendar year 2025) is resolvable and clearly not met. Tesla does not break out Cybertruck separately, bundling it into 'Other Models' with Model S/X; that COMBINED category totaled just 53,900 produced for all of FY2025, which is an upper bound far below 100,000 — so the shortfall is unambiguous regardless of the exact Cybertruck-only figure. The NHTSA recall (63,619 units cumulative Nov-2023→Oct-2025) independently corroborates. resolved_on set to 2026-01-02, when Tesla published its FY2025 production totals. No outcome value (o) assigned per stage separation. Consider capturing an archive_url for both sources in a later archival pass.
Sources
Elon Musk BOMBSHELL That Will Change Tesla Forever
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Tesla's official Q4 & FY 2025 vehicle production/delivery report shows full-year 2025 production of 'Other Models' (Model S + Model X + Cybertruck COMBINED) was only 53,900 units (deliveries 50,850). Since this total spans three models, Cybertruck-alone 2025 production was necessarily well below 53,900 — far short of the ~100,000 criterion. Analysts estimate Cybertruck was roughly half of the category, i.e. ~20,000–25,000 units for 2025.
NHTSA recall filing (federal safety document) discloses Tesla produced 63,619 Cybertrucks TOTAL between November 13, 2023 and October 11, 2025 — a cumulative figure over nearly two years of production. This official primary-source count confirms even the entire lifetime production through Oct 2025 was below 100,000, so a single calendar year 2025 could not have reached ~100,000.
Quarterly 'Other Models' production declined through 2025 (Q1 17,161 → Q2 13,409 → Q3 11,624 → Q4 11,706), confirming a sustained low production rate for the S/X/Cybertruck category well under the pace needed for 100,000 Cybertrucks in the year.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+1.36- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- 25% right
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Tesla will produce 100,000 Cybertrucks in 2025.- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-12-07
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources