Full record
MisseconomyMortgage/real-estate defaults will begin to appear within 6-12 months
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“by the time we're actually going to see some defaults on the reset market it's probably 6 to 12 months away”
Mortgage/real-estate defaults will begin to appear within 6-12 months
- Made on
- 2022-08-24
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -0.84
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-08-24
Mortgage/real-estate default rates begin rising noticeably by ~Aug 2023
Written criterion: default rates 'begin rising noticeably by ~Aug 2023.' Primary industry data (MBA NDS) shows the opposite — record-low delinquencies at end-Q2 2023 driven by a resilient labor market. Prediction not borne out. Resolved against the deadline (2023-08-24).
Sources
The Housing Crash; Twitter DOJ Investigation; Tesla Stock Split; $BBBY Saved? | The Tom Nash Show
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
MBA National Delinquency Survey: the 1–4 unit residential mortgage delinquency rate FELL to a seasonally adjusted 3.37% at end of Q2 2023 — the LOWEST in the survey's history (since 1979), per MBA VP Marina Walsh. This is the opposite of a noticeable rise around Aug 2023.
CoreLogic/HousingWire and Milliman Mortgage Default Index reports covering Q2–Q3 2023 confirm delinquencies and defaults remained near historic lows through mid/late 2023 (historic 1979–2023 average is ~5.25%; 2023 ran far below). Any uptick was marginal (a few basis points off record lows), not a noticeable rise.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-0.84- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Mortgage/real-estate defaults will begin to appear within 6…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-08-24
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources