Full record
HiteconomyThe Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points at its February 1, 2023 meeting.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“I think it's about 95 chance we're gonna get a 0.25 increase at this point”
The Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points at its February 1, 2023 meeting.
- Made on
- 2023-01-30
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.98
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-02-01
The FOMC raises the federal funds target range by 0.25 percentage points at its February 1, 2023 meeting.
The FOMC raised the target range by exactly 0.25 percentage points (to 4.50–4.75%). The written 25-bps criterion IS met. Primary source is the Fed's own implementation note. Outcome value assignment deferred to a later stage.
Sources
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Evidence of what happened
Federal Reserve Implementation Note (Feb 1, 2023): FOMC set the federal funds target range to 4.5%–4.75%, effective Feb 2, 2023 — a 0.25 percentage point (25 bps) increase, exactly as predicted.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.98- How sure they sounded
- 95%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis point…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-01-30
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources