Full record
MisseconomyA severe downturn (an 'avalanche of a storm') will hit the US economy and stock market after September 2022
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“We're going to see absolute avalanche of a storm in our economy and the stock market.”
A severe downturn (an 'avalanche of a storm') will hit the US economy and stock market after September 2022
- Made on
- 2022-08-27
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Effect on score
- -2.22
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-08-27
A severe downturn hits the US economy and stock market (recession and/or ≥20% market decline) in the months after Sept 2022
Criterion: a severe downturn (recession and/or ≥20% market decline) in the months after Sept 2022 through Aug 2023. The ~25% peak-to-trough equity decline peaked in Jan 2022 (before the window) and BOTTOMED in Oct 2022; after Sept 2022 the market recovered into a new bull market by June 2023, and NBER declared no recession. No severe downturn materialized in the window. Prediction not borne out. Resolved at deadline (2023-08-27).
Sources
The FED Is About To Make The Most Expensive Mistake In History
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
No severe economic downturn occurred in the window after Sept 2022. NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee declared NO recession for 2022–2023 (its last was the Feb–Apr 2020 COVID recession); the economy 'defied forecasts for a recession.'
Markets recovered rather than crashed after Sept 2022: the S&P 500 bottomed at its Oct 12, 2022 low (3,577.03) and then rose ~20% to close at 4,293.93 on June 8, 2023, ending the bear market and starting a new bull market — the opposite of a post-Sept-2022 'avalanche.'
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-2.22- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
A severe downturn (an 'avalanche of a storm') will hit the…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-08-27
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources