Full record

75% rightmarkets

Tesla (TSLA) stock reaches about $1,465 per share (pre-2022-split basis), roughly 117% above the price at the time.

A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .

VideoQuote from the original sourcemarkets

Scored prediction

75% rightmarkets

if you're translated based on a four percent perpetual growth and a 25x multiplier given the amount of cash and that the company currently has this is the price target you'll get 1 465 per share giving us 117 upside

Tesla (TSLA) stock reaches about $1,465 per share (pre-2022-split basis), roughly 117% above the price at the time.

Made on
2021-03-02
Outcome
75% right
Importance
3 / 5
Effect on score
+2.94

What counted as right

Status
resolved
Settled on
2024-03-02

Resolves TRUE if TSLA trades at or above $1,465 on the pre-August-2022 basis (equivalently $488.33 or above after the 3:1 split) at any point on or before 2024-03-02; FALSE if that level is never reached in the window.

Direction of evidence is FALSE. TSLA's all-time high for the entire window was $414.50 split-adjusted ($1,243.49 pre-split) on 2021-11-04, which is 15.1% below the $488.33 threshold; the target was never touched, not even intraday, on any of the 756 trading days. Verified against the split-adjusted series with the 3:1 split (2022-08-25) confirmed in the same data response, so the pre-split/post-split conversion in the criterion checks out. Worth recording for transparency: TSLA did eventually exceed $488.33 in December 2024, but that is roughly nine months AFTER the 2024-03-02 deadline and is therefore outside the window and irrelevant to this record. Resolved on the deadline date, since the criterion is an 'at any point on or before' condition that only fails once the window closes. Data source is Yahoo Finance rather than an exchange feed: stooq.com served a JS proof-of-work bot-detection challenge which I did not bypass, and the session's WebSearch budget was exhausted. The margin is far too large for data-vendor differences to matter.

Sources

  • TESLA STOCK: Chamath Just Dropped a MASSIVE Bombshell About Tesla's Future | Tesla Stock Prediction

    YouTube - Tom Nash ·

    Source

Evidence of what happened

  • Yahoo Finance daily OHLC for TSLA over the full window 2021-03-02 to 2024-03-02 (756 trading days, split-adjusted): the maximum intraday high was $414.50 on 2021-11-04, equivalent to $1,243.49 on the pre-August-2022 basis (414.4966 x 3). Zero trading days in the window had a high at or above the $488.33 post-split threshold.

    EvidenceArchive

  • The same Yahoo chart response carries Tesla's 3:1 stock split event (effective 2022-08-25), confirming the split factor used to convert the $1,465 pre-split target into the $488.33 post-split threshold specified in the criterion.

    Evidence

Corrections

No public corrections.

Effect on the score

+2.94
How sure they sounded
85%
Outcome
75% right
Importance
3 / 5

This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.

Where this came from

Tesla (TSLA) stock reaches about $1,465 per share (pre-2022…
Methodology version
v1.0.0
Last computed
August 2, 2026
Made on
2021-03-02

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