Full record
HittechOver the next two-to-three years, Palantir's government business expands materially (deeper penetration of its government TAM driven by new-cold-war demand for Gotham).
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hittech“What is coming in the next two or three years: complete heat up of a new cold war electronically, and a demand for gotham which is going to drive palantir into much more government tam.”
Over the next two-to-three years, Palantir's government business expands materially (deeper penetration of its government TAM driven by new-cold-war demand for Gotham).
- Made on
- 2022-02-24
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.86
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-12-31
Palantir government-segment revenue is materially higher (e.g. ≥25%) by FY2024 versus FY2021.
Criterion (government-segment revenue materially higher, e.g. >=25%, FY2024 vs FY2021) is clearly met on primary SEC data: +~75%. Note the criterion tests only the magnitude of government-revenue growth, not the qualitative driver ('new-cold-war demand for Gotham') nor TAM-penetration depth; the revenue test resolves affirmatively regardless. Outcome measurable at FY2024 year-end; confirmed by 10-K filed 2025-02-18, within the 2025-02-24 deadline.
Sources
PLTR: Something Crazy Just Happened!
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Palantir FY2024 10-K: government-segment revenue was $1,569.6M for fiscal year 2024 (ended 2024-12-31).
Palantir FY2021 10-K: government-segment revenue was $897.4M for fiscal year 2021. FY2024 vs FY2021 = +$672.2M, approximately +75%, well above the 25% materiality threshold in the criterion.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.86- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Over the next two-to-three years, Palantir's government bus…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-02-24
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources