Full record
MissmarketsThe US stock market at best trades sideways over the two years to 2025-03-27.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“there might be a small spike in the stock market after Jerome Powell actually finally admits they cannot raise any more rates... but long term, looking at the next two years, it's going to be an absolute shit show. The best case scenario is going to be kind of a sideways market based on everything that happens right now. There's just not good solutions out here.”
The US stock market at best trades sideways over the two years to 2025-03-27.
- Made on
- 2023-03-27
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.78
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-03-27
Over the two years to 2025-03-27 the S&P 500 does no better than sideways: its close on 2025-03-27 is no more than about 5% above its 2023-03-27 close. A materially larger gain over that window falsifies the stated best case.
Criterion is unambiguous and decisively failed: +43.1% price return over the two years to 2025-03-27 versus a stated best case of roughly flat (<= ~5%). Two independent sources agree to the cent on both endpoint closes. Measured on price return only, as the criterion specifies index closes; total return including dividends would be higher still, so the conclusion is unaffected by that choice. Context logged, not a conflict: the index had already retraced from its 2025-02-19 record close (6144.15) by the 2025-03-27 measurement date, and the window closed just before the April 2025 drawdown - even so the endpoint gain is roughly eight times the criterion's ceiling. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
WARNING! Recession Will Start in a Few Months
Tom Nash (YouTube, @TomNashTV) ·
Evidence of what happened
S&P 500 daily closing values (FRED series SP500, S&P Dow Jones Indices data): close on 2023-03-27 was 3977.53; close on 2025-03-27 was 5693.31. That is a gain of 1715.78 points, or +43.1% over the two-year window - far above the ~5% 'no better than sideways' ceiling in the criterion. Retrieved 2026-07-25 via fredgraph.csv?id=SP500&cosd=2023-03-20&coed=2025-04-02.
Independent cross-check on a second data source: Yahoo Finance daily history for ^GSPC gives identical closes of 3977.53 (2023-03-27) and 5693.31 (2025-03-27), +43.14%. Both endpoints were regular trading days (Mondays/Thursdays), so no date-substitution was needed.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.78- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The US stock market at best trades sideways over the two ye…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-03-27
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources