Full record
HitmarketsGrowth/tech stocks will suffer a major decline ("bloodbath") as the Fed tapers bond purchases and raises interest rates
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“tapering is going to happen interest rates will go up tech stocks will go down there's going to be a bloodbath”
Growth/tech stocks will suffer a major decline ("bloodbath") as the Fed tapers bond purchases and raises interest rates
- Made on
- 2021-10-20
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.82
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-10-14
A major tech-stock index (e.g. Nasdaq-100) falls ≥20% peak-to-trough during the Fed tapering and 2022 rate-hike cycle.
Criterion (a major tech-stock index falls >=20% peak-to-trough during the tapering/2022 rate-hike cycle) is clearly satisfied: NDX drawdown ~35-37%, far exceeding 20%, and squarely within the Fed-tightening window the claim named. resolved_on set to the ~2022-10-14 cycle trough; the -20% line was first crossed earlier in H1 2022. No outcome value assigned (later stage).
Sources
This Investing Mistake Will DESTROY Your Portfolio (DON'T DO THIS)
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Nasdaq-100 (NDX) fell ~35-37% peak-to-trough: from its Nov 2021 record high (closing high 16,573 on 2021-11-19; intraday ATH ~16,765 on 2021-11-22) to its 2022 cycle trough (~10,440 intraday on 2022-10-13, closing low ~10,679 on 2022-10-14). The ≥20% threshold was breached in H1 2022 and the full decline was realized before the 2022-12-31 deadline. This coincided exactly with the Fed tapering (begun Nov 2021) and 2022 rate-hike cycle (first hike Mar 2022, then a series of 75bp hikes) named in the criterion.
Contemporaneous reporting framing the Nasdaq/tech selloff explicitly as driven by Fed tapering and rate hikes, confirming the mechanism the prediction specified.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.82- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Growth/tech stocks will suffer a major decline ("bloodbath"…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-10-20
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources