Full record
MissmarketsOil/energy prices stay elevated near $100 and do not come down through the near future
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“Energy prices are not going to come down anytime soon. They're going to be around 100 until the foreseeable future.”
Oil/energy prices stay elevated near $100 and do not come down through the near future
- Made on
- 2022-03-25
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.78
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-03-25
Front-month crude oil (WTI/Brent) stays elevated near or above ~$90 on a sustained basis through ~2023-03, rather than falling substantially.
Criterion (front-month crude stays elevated near/above ~$90 sustained through ~2023-03) is contradicted: prices fell well below $90 by autumn 2022 and were ~$70s at the deadline. Primary source: St. Louis Fed / EIA WTI spot. No outcome value assigned here.
Sources
I got bad news...
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
WTI crude (FRED daily spot, DCOILWTICO) fell substantially and was NOT near/above ~$90 on a sustained basis through Mar 2023. Peaked ~$115 in Jun 2022, then declined: ~$87 (Sep 1, 2022), ~$81/$76 (Dec 1/15, 2022), ~$76–79 (Feb 2023), ~$77 then ~$67 (Mar 1/15, 2023). WTI was below $90 for essentially the entire second half of the window and sat in the ~$67–78 range in Feb–Mar 2023.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.78- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Oil/energy prices stay elevated near $100 and do not come d…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-03-25
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources