Full record
HiteconomyThe US federal funds rate will reach 4-4.5% by the end of 2022.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“end of day to day we're gonna be at above three percent I think three or three point twenty five percent and if they do a 75 basis points and that means by the end of the year we're going to be at four four and a half”
The US federal funds rate will reach 4-4.5% by the end of 2022.
- Made on
- 2022-09-21
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.99
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-12-14
The upper bound of the US federal funds target range reaches 4-4.5% on or before 2022-12-31.
Criterion (upper bound of federal funds target range reaches 4-4.5% on or before 2022-12-31) met. Prior Nov 2, 2022 hike took the range to 3.75-4.00%; the Dec 14, 2022 hike lifted the upper bound to 4.50%. No conflicting evidence.
Sources
Powell admits we are in a recession; Putin's nuclear threats
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
FOMC raised the federal funds target range by 0.50 pp to 4.25%-4.50%, effective Dec 15, 2022 (decision announced Dec 14, 2022). The upper bound reached 4.50%, within the 4-4.5% criterion, before year-end.
Fed's Dec 14, 2022 implementation note / statement PDF confirming the 4.25-4.50% target range.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.99- How sure they sounded
- 97%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The US federal funds rate will reach 4-4.5% by the end of 2…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-09-21
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources