Full record
MissgeopoliticsRussia will replace Ukraine's elected government with a pro-Russian puppet regime, ending its independent democratic governance.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Missgeopolitics“putin is going to replace the current democratically elected government with his own puppet regime and this is going to be the end of independent democratic ukraine”
Russia will replace Ukraine's elected government with a pro-Russian puppet regime, ending its independent democratic governance.
- Made on
- 2022-02-24
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Effect on score
- -2.22
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-02-24
Russia topples Ukraine's elected government and installs a pro-Russian puppet regime, ending independent democratic governance, within the horizon.
Full 3-year horizon elapsed without the predicted event; the government was neither toppled nor replaced by a puppet regime, and independent democratic governance persisted. Prediction did not come true.
Sources
The Russian Invasion Begins (I Didn't Think It Would Come To This)
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
As of the 2025-02-24 horizon, Russia had NOT toppled Ukraine's elected government nor installed a pro-Russian puppet regime. Volodymyr Zelenskyy remained the elected president and Ukraine continued as an independent, self-governing state; Zelenskyy publicly stated Putin failed to achieve his war objectives as the war entered its fourth/fifth year.
A pro-Russian plot to overthrow Zelenskyy's government was foiled (SBU announced July 1, 2024), underscoring that the decapitation/puppet-installation outcome did not occur within the horizon.
Corrections
- Prediction timeframe: There is no generic 'default multi-year horizon' rule for geopolitical claims; cite the actual applicable reasoning so the inferred deadline is auditable. Deadline value (2025-02-24) unchanged.
Effect on the score
-2.22- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Russia will replace Ukraine's elected government with a pro…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-02-24
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources