Full record
HitmarketsWhen the Fed admits rates must rise toward ~3-4%, the stock market (especially growth stocks) will crash.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“once the fed actually comes out and admits that they were wrong again like they did with the transitory thing and they let everybody know that there's a bigger interest high coming towards three three and a half four percent then the market would really crash”
When the Fed admits rates must rise toward ~3-4%, the stock market (especially growth stocks) will crash.
- Made on
- 2021-12-17
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.82
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-06-13
After the Fed signals a terminal rate near 3-4%, the S&P 500 (or Nasdaq growth stocks) falls >=20% peak-to-trough within ~12 months.
Both parts of the written criterion are met: the Fed signaled a ~3-4% terminal rate (June 2022 dots at 3.4%/3.8%), and the S&P 500 fell >=20% peak-to-trough (25.4% Jan->Oct 2022) inside the horizon. resolved_on set to 2022-06-13, the first S&P close >20% below the Jan 3 peak; the trough deepened to -25.4% by mid-October. No outcome value assigned (later stage).
Sources
Elon Finally Had Enough. Decides To End Elizabeth Warren's Career.
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Fed's June 2022 dot plot signaled a terminal rate 'near 3-4%': median year-end 2022 projection 3.4%, end-2023 3.8%. This satisfies the criterion's antecedent (Fed signals terminal rate ~3-4%).
S&P 500 fell 25.4% from its Jan 3, 2022 peak to its Oct 2022 trough, and closed in bear-market territory (-23%) from Jan 3 through mid-June 2022 — a >=20% peak-to-trough decline well within the ~12-month window (deadline 2022-12-17). Nasdaq/growth stocks fell further (~33%).
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.82- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
When the Fed admits rates must rise toward ~3-4%, the stock…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-12-17
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources